November 19, 2009
Two bigs storms are hitting Washington State, one blowing in last night, another blowing in this afternoon. So far, no landslides have been reported over major roadways or have made it into the media (although where we had rainfall so far isn’t well covered by the media). However, this last storm added water into already soaked hillsides, setting up the stage for the potential for sliding this evening and into tomorrow.
We don’t have a forecasting system up yet (so far I have been swamped by other projects and haven’t been able to spend enough time getting it going). But, we can try and make some estimation of areas that will have a higher chance of sliding. I would put this akin to a back of the napkin calculation.
This is our forecasted rainfall for the next day or so (including some of the precipitation from yesterday). The things to note in all of this, much of the higher elevations where higher rainfall is shown is mostly snow, I never parsed that out in the file. Next, I just used forecasted inches of rainfall to determine where the difference between low and high should be. It is a little arbitrary, but I did look back at the other smaller storms with somewhat similar soil saturations to help determine when we started seeing landslides initiating. This is more of an experiment at this time to see if we can make a really simplified forecasting system that tries and predicts which counties will be at risk of landslides during a storm. A note of caution, even in the low areas we can expect landslides, especially in urban areas. In less urban areas, water usually knows where it wants to go, has been going there for a long time. In urban areas, we have a lot more control over that water, we channel it on roadways and usually discharge it into sewers or into creeks. The problem, if a road channeling water is blocked (either by leaves, debris or some other thing), that water can be diverted, saturating a nearby hillside and causing a landslide, even though rainfall was low. This can also occur with property owners concentrating water on their property. There are a lot of other factors involved of course, but you get the idea.